Air Conditioner Shipments Jump in May While Furnace Market Continues Slide
May shipment numbers from AHRI show cooling equipment gaining traction while heating products continue their year-to-date decline, pointing to a bifurcated market where contractors need different strategies for summer stock versus winter prep.
Air conditioning and heat pump shipments posted solid monthly gains in May according to the Air-Conditioning, Heating, and Refrigeration Institute, with residential central AC units up compared to the same month last year. The rebound comes after a sluggish first quarter, suggesting distributor restocking ahead of peak cooling season demand. Split system AC units led the growth, while packaged units showed more modest movement.
Gas furnace shipments tell a different story. Year-to-date numbers through May show residential gas furnaces down roughly 17 percent compared to 2023, continuing a trend that started last fall. The decline reflects both new construction slowdowns and homeowners delaying replacements in a high-interest-rate environment. Oil furnaces have dropped even harder, though they represent a fraction of total heating shipments. The divergence matters because it affects how distributors allocate floor space and how manufacturers schedule production runs going into the second half of the year.
Heat pumps occupy middle ground in the data. Shipments are holding relatively steady year-over-year, buoyed by IRA tax credit awareness and utility rebate programs in key markets like the Pacific Northwest and Northeast. Air-to-air heat pumps in the 3-ton to 5-ton range remain the volume leaders, with ducted models still outselling ductless by a wide margin in residential retrofit applications. The upcoming transition to A2L refrigerants in 2025 has not yet triggered the inventory surge some analysts predicted, though that may change as we approach the January 1 compliance date.
For contractors, the May data suggests three moves this month. First, confirm your distributor has adequate AC inventory for July and August callbacks — last year's late-season shortages on popular 14 SEER2 models caught crews waiting. Second, resist the urge to overstock furnaces before fall; if the downward trend continues, you will see better pricing in September than you will locking in now. Third, if you are quoting heat pump jobs with long lead times, verify whether the equipment will ship before or after the A2L cutover and price accordingly, since R-410A units may carry closeout discounts while A2L models command premiums during the transition window.
The shipment split also signals where manufacturer marketing dollars will flow. Expect heavier cooling promotions and spiffs through summer, while heating incentives likely wait until distributors need to clear 2024 furnace inventory in Q4. Plan your customer outreach around those cycles rather than against them.