Heating, Air-conditioning & Refrigeration Distributors International released March sales figures showing distributor members logged a 10.4% revenue increase compared to March 2024. After adjusting for the number of billing days in the month, the day-adjusted growth rate landed closer to 5.4%—a solid indicator that spring demand arrived earlier than typical seasonal patterns.

The report attributes part of the uptick to cooler-than-expected temperatures in several regions during late winter, which delayed the transition from heating to cooling season and kept furnace replacement jobs active into early spring. At the same time, commercial construction timelines accelerated as contractors moved to beat potential tariff increases on imported equipment and components. Distributors stocked heavier inventories of condensing units, evaporator coils, and refrigerant in anticipation of tighter supply chains heading into peak season.

Payment cycles remained stable, with days sales outstanding holding steady compared to prior months. That financial health signals contractors are collecting from customers on time, a positive sign for cash flow across the channel. Residential replacement work continues to dominate sales mix, but light commercial retrofit projects—schools, strip retail, small office buildings—are contributing more volume than the same period in 2024.

For contractors, this data translates to three tactical moves for Q2. First, confirm your distributor has adequate stock of high-efficiency split systems and variable-speed air handlers; lead times on premium equipment remain longer than budget-tier units. Second, lock in pricing on any large jobs scheduled for June or July—distributors may adjust pricing as manufacturer cost increases roll through. Third, if you're quoting new construction, verify refrigerant pricing for the specific blend (R-410A, R-454B, or R-32) the engineer specified; A2L refrigerants carry different handling requirements and your labor estimate should account for extra leak-check time and mild-flammability precautions.

The March numbers suggest the industry is entering peak season with stronger momentum than 2024, but supply chain volatility and tariff uncertainty remain wild cards. Distributors that invested in inventory early are positioned to win contractor loyalty when equipment gets tight in July and August.